Politics in Guerrero

Sunday February 6, 2005 was a historic day. Not only was it super bowl Sunday in the U.S. when the New England Patriots became a football dynasty, but it was a day when Mexico held a series of state elections with national significance. Gubernatorial elections were held in three states including the state of Guerrero (the state in which Acapulco, the main population center of Guerrero, is located).

The election for the governor of Guerrero pit former mayor of the state capital Chilpancingo, Hector Astudillo Flores of the ruling PRI's "Todos por Guerrero" coalition (which included the PVE and PT) against former Acapulco mayor Carlos Zeferino Torreblanca Galindo of the challenger PRD's Guerrero Será Mejor coalition (which included the CONV and PRS).

What made this election so important is that the state of Guerrero had been considered one of Mexico's principal backward states, stubbornly clinging to a political past of heavy handed one party-rule. Indeed, since the Mexican Revolution, there had never been a governor from a party other the PRI in the state of Guerrero. If the PRD were to win, it would not only break the 76 year stranglehold on the state of the PRI but would lead to a shakeup of wealth and power.

The months leading up to the election were amazing. It was clear that the PRI
was doing everything they could to hang on to power. Astudillo's campaign propaganda was everywhere. One couldn't turn on the radio or walk down the street without hearing his voice or seeing his face.

Indeed, most polling firms had the two candidates in a dead heat and I was all but sure that the PRI would manage to hold onto power once again. They seem to have excelled at winning squeekers in other states recently.

That was until the I went to see Zeferino speak in Acapulco's Zocalo to close his campaign a week before the election. The crowd was ENORMOUS. As I made my way through the crowd I could feel their energy. Person after person explained that 2005 was the year that they would finally "sacar el PRI."

Looking back, it's not surprising that the polls were so far off. So many people would say they would vote fot the PRI in public then in private say were really planning to vote PRD.

Although I don't think I managed a good shot, Zeferino's campaign used a big Z, made to look like the mark of Zorro (and a lot of people actually showed up in zorro masks and capes). Astudillo used the symbol superman wore on the front of his tights replacing the big S with a Big A. He also used another curcious symbol, a big A in a circle that looked uncomfortably close to an anarchy symbol.

The PRD's message was clear: "The PRI will say and do anything to remain in power. They're corrupt, they've mismanaged the state for decades. The time has come to throw them out."

The PRI's message was less clear. As far as I could tell, they ran on some vague plan to reduce people's electricity bills.

(They did have some catchy tunes though. It'll be a long time before I forget the jinngle whose repetative chorus went "Astudillo más empleo, más empleo Astudillo...")

I was impressed by how serious Mexico had become about about electoral politics, even in "backward" Guerrero. In Acapulco, the undisputed king of West Coast party town's, the stores refused to sell alcohol on saturday night in compliance with the ley seca (dry law) that was enacted with the aim that people didn't get drunk on saturday night and then not show up to vote on Sunday.

When the fateful day rolled around, it was clear that the PRD was on the way to a big victory and the PRI was on the way out. Despite the PRI's reliance on traditional tactics of carrot and stick rather than political message, the handwriting was on the wall and people were determined that 2005 would be the year of change. The vote would be by and large a clean one and there was nothing they could do about it.

What was supposed to be a close election turned into a route. Astudillo even lost his home city of Chilpancingo to the Zeferino express. In Acapulco, the PRI was simply destroyed by the left-leaning PRD. The PAN, the party of Mexican president Fox (Mexico's conservative party modeled on the U.S.'s GOP) pulled a whopping 1% of the vote proving that Guerrero was a state firmly on the economic left. The final results of the historic election were: PRD 55% (585,000 votes), PRI 42% (447,000 votes), PAN 1% (11,000 votes). As you can see, the yellow of the PRD swept the state while the PRI (red) took the more traditional areas, most notable Taxco.



The loss of Guerrero by the PRI is very significant. Not only was it in many ways the coup de grace in Mexico's democratic translation, but the victory paves the way for the PRD nationally in 2006 as its current standard bearer, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, remains the favorite in national polls.

To put it in perspective, the PRD winning Guerrero is sort of be like the Democratic Party taking South Carolina in the U.S. - something signifying a major shift. Zeferino will now have to work with the current governor, René Juarez Cisneros of the PRI on this historic handover of power despite internal PRI grumbling.

In the political Landscape of Guerrero. There are: 10 Federal Districts, 28 Local Districts, 77 Municipalities, and 2,782 Sections As of June 2003, there were 1,907,079 registered voters which break down into 907,979 men and 999,100 women. Source: Lista Nominal The total population of Guerrero was 3,079,649 consisting of 1,491,287 men and 1,588,362 women. Source: XII Censo General de Población y Vivienda 2000, INEGI